Monday, December 29, 2008

Big East Outlook

I figure it's gonna take 32 more games to win this thing. Every time we win........we peel a section!
Well, there really are only 18 games remaining in Big East conference play so 32 wins would be impossible.....even if there were 32 would be impossible. Anywho, this is my prediction on how the Big East season plays out for Marquette (without too much detail I hope).
Jan 1: Villanova - Win, It's at home and we match up well with them over all. Beat them handly on the road last year
Jan 4: Cincinnati - Win, Cincy is better than last year, but their bigs aren't that good. Kind of a 1 trick pony with Deonta Vaughn, so as long as he doesn't go for 40 we win.
Jan 7: at Rutgers - Win, Rutgers isn't good, and we owe them a little payback for the game 2 years ago.
Jan 10: West Virginia - Win, Bob Huggins' crew is very good so I'm leary...especially considering it will be the 4th game in 10 days and just coming back from the New Jersey roady. However, I give MU the edge due to the rowdy drunkeness that Saturday games bring to the BC. Thanks RC.
Jan 17: at Providence - WIN, I know......5-0 start seems unrealistic, but Providence is bad under the transitioning regime. They will have a week to recooperate after the WV game, so if they're coming off a win it just gives them added confidence......if they're coming off a loss, they should be pissed and prepped. I'm sticking with it. Win
Jan 24: Depaul: Win, It better be a win. Is Jerry still coaching that team? They're not very good. St. Louis is they're only decent win....if that's considered decent. They only scored 36 pts against Northwestern. 6-0?????
Jan 26: at Notre Damnit: Loss, Big Monday and only 1 day off after the Depaul game. Notre Dame is damn good this year. Yet, are they all that different from the team that we took 2 out of 3 from last year? Harangody will get his, but if we can catch McAlarney on a cold night we could walk out with a victory. After the 6-0/5-1 start, we're due.......Loss.
Jan 31: Georgetown: Win, They better beat their ass after blowing last year's game at home. I predict Dom carries us with one of his special performances (hopefully to make up for last year's debacle). Key is to get ahead on these guys last year, but finish this game. They are very good (and just handled UConn at UConn), but they aren't as deep or as experienced as the past few years. Defend, Defend, Defend! Get everyone to Turners at sun-up and enjoy the reasonably priced cocktails. Get rowdy as I suspect the crowd will be needed that day.
Feb 3: At Depaul: Win, Our home away from home (although I've never actually gone to a game there). Again, they aren't great and hopefully our senior leadership won't lead to a let down.
Feb 6: At South Florida: Win, Do all of these victories seem unreasonable? Possibly the worst team in the Big East so again I hope we don't have a let-down. I don't see it.
Feb 10: at Villanova: Loss, I like the way we match up with them and we have had success against them, but I can't see us rattling off the amount of wins that I'm predicting here. Tough road game, but I think we lose a close one.
Feb 14: St Johns: Win, St Johns will likely finish in the bottom 4 of the league. Another Saturday at the BC will bring a nice double digit victory for the Golden Eagles.
Feb 17: Seton Hall: Win, I know that the last 2-3 weeks of the season are BRUTAL, but I must say that the first 6 weeks are really set in Marquette's favor. A short rest after the St Johs game, but no travel required and another bottom feeding BE team will give us a victory. How many wins will Indiana have at this point? I'll set the over under at 8.
Feb 21: at Georgetown: Loss, The last time we played there was quite unpleasant if I remember correctly. Not much to say here. Tough team and on the road usually doesn't add up well. Monroe will eat us alive! I foresee big time foul trouble for MU.
Feb 25: Connecticut: Loss, Possibly the worst matchup for our squad. UConn should dominate the glass and get plenty of 2nd chance points. The only hope we have is a performance like I just witnessed. Sometimes, Calhoun's ultra talented squads just don't show up. Let's hope for it, but I just don't see it happening.
Mar 1: Louisville: Loss, 2nd worst matchup after UConn and Pitino has had our number of late. They always seem to play well against us too. Similarly to UConn though, UL can have a streaky shooting night if they fall in love with the 3 and lost at home to Western Kentucky and vs. a decent Minnesota team. C-A-R-D-S, Cards, Cards. Oh how I'd love to beat slick Rick on the road.
Mar 4: at Pittsburgh: Loss, This is just BRUTAL! Going from DC, to Milwaukee (vs G'town), to Louisville, to Pittsburgh in 11 days and playing what looks to be 4 of the 5 best teams is ridiculous and unfortunate. Blair and Young are bad matchups for us in a tough Zoo-like environment. I predict turnovers and foul trouble. 4 losses in a row....EEK!
Mar 7: Syracuse: Win, Cuse has some good rebounders, but aside from Onuaku don't have a ton of size. They'll be happy to be back in Milwaukee after that hellish 11 days so I foresee some good ol home cookin' will lead to a victory. Can I just say that I hope they beat the piss out of Flynn and Devendorf!
So there it is. If my math serves me I've got MU going 12-6 in Big East play, however I'll put the official prediction at 11-5 due to random occurence, and I'll set the over/under at 10. Honestly, I don't think our schedule extremely brutal......or should I say it could be worse considering our home and homes are against Georgetown, Villanova, and Depaul. Yes, the last 5 games literally can't be any worse but we have to play them at some point. I look at it this way. If we can take care of business the first 6 weeks of the season and go 10-2 or 9-3, 1) we should go into the last few weeks with a ton of confidence, 2) we should be getting better with more practices......esp. our newcomers, so our depth should improve with time, and 3) injuries can occur with teams (hopefully not our own, although we've been punished pretty bad in the past so maybe we'll get lucky this year), so maybe we'll get lucky and play Pitt without Sam Young or something. That being said, a hot start combined with an upset over UConn, UofL, or Pitt at the end of the year would probably put us in the upper quarter of the conference. So like I said, I figure it's gonna take 12 wins to win this thing. Every time we win......we peel a section! Let the games begin!


EMoney said...

Ok, so it wasn't a short prediction.....sorry. I couldn't half ass it after how much time it took me to put that pic together. I hope everyone enjoys it as much as I do.

FPMKE said...

Normally the thought of playing Georgetown makes me cringe but I was watching them play UConn last night and they have a very young team. Yeah, they won and looked pretty good doing it. However, their bench only scored 6 points (paging Buzz Williams)... if Marquette can get some production from the bench and even contributions from the starters, we have a very good chance of winning on Jan 31.

Rubie Q said...

Over/under at 10? I'll take the under.

Devil's Threesome said...

Me too on the under.

Our first part of the schedule is easy. There are a couple of games that are huge, though. We have to win at Providence and need at least a split at home with Nova and WVU. If we lose both of those, we are in trouble. No way we lose both of those, though. Maybe I'm crazy, but I like our chances at ND. We match up well with them.

Rubie Q said...

Channeling Freeway:

WHO'S GOING TO GUARD BIG LUKE HARANGODY? Burke will foul out in about 15 minutes, and Otule won't be far enough along to help. I don't like that matchup.

Devil's Threesome said...

We let Sasquatch get his last year and still beat them 2 out of 3 times. He is a very selfish player. When they feed the post we need to double down on him and force him to kick it back out. He's a black hole and won't kick it back out. I have no basis for this and maybe I'll look it up over lunch, but it seems that ND loses all the games where he goes off. Note the UL game last year, our game at the BC and the Ohio St game this year. McAlarney scares me more. If he's hot, we are toast.

EMoney said...

So Rub's and D3.....since you are both taking the under u both think that we will finish at 0.500 or worse? That's essentially saying that we will take care of business against the lesser teams and not win 1 game against the top 6-7. The only teams that REALLY scare me are Louisville and UConn because they have so much size and depth to go along with it. We can beat ND as we did 2 out of 3 times last year with both teams essentially being the same. Georgetown is young, not very deep, and their talented big guy is a freshman so my guess is that he doesn't play consistently great game to game. We match up well with Nova and play them twice. WV doesn't have a ton of size and we get them at home. I'm usually quite level headed when making my predictions and while I'm being unusually optimistic, when I break it down on paper it doesn't look all that unfeasible. In fact how bout we put a little wager on it. The usual? 1 dollar?

Rubie Q said...

I think you're greatly overestimating how well we're going to perform on the road. We just squeaked by a middling NC State squad -- who, by the way, just beat LOYOLA-MARYLAND by two at home. I haven't seen anything that convinces me this is going to be a good road team.

Realistically, we have very little chance of winning at Georgetown, at 'Nova, at Notre Dame, and at Pitt. And we're going to lose one of @ DePaul, @ South Florida, @ Providence, and @ Rutgers, and I wouldn't be shocked if we lost two. We're going to have a hiccup -- that's what happens when you're forced to play the same four guys 36+ minutes a game. So that's five or six losses right there.

UConn and Loo-uh-vul are nightmares for us, and we're not catching either in their typical, early-season malaise. We're playing them in the run-up to the tourney. Two more losses. We're up to seven or eight already.

And we're not going to sweep WVU, 'Nova, 'Cuse, and Georgetown. We'll lose one, maybe two.

So, yes, I think we'll go 9-9, at best. I'd put $2.50 on it.

Devil's Threesome said...

I misinterpreted the over/under thing. For some reason, I thought that was Rub's line on our bench production against G'town. I think we'll be 10-8 or 11-7.

Wins - 7
@USF - absolutely wretched team
DePaul x 2 - absolutely wretched team
@Rutgers - tough place to play, but we aren't a big enough name to attract a rowdy crowd while they are on break
St. John's - horrible
Seton Hall - horrible
Cincinnati - the one I'm most concerned about, but it's at home

Losses - 4

Toss-Ups - 3-4 here gets us to 10 wins
Nova x 2

EMoney said...

NC State was still stunned due to that monster of a pick that Dwight Burke made to set up Dom's dagger. It was an absolutely packed house against us, with a full student section 3 days before christmas. I'm guessing that the crowd nor the players wanted to show up 2 days after christmas and they still got the W so I don't want to hear about their margin of victory.

Maybe I am overestimating our ability to win on the road against even the lower tier teams, but in saying that I think that you are missing your own point and conceding too many home losses for us. I wouldn't say that we're exactly a push over, so there is that possibility of us beating a UConn, G'town, or Syracuse at home. If we can win 1 or 2 of those I predict we will be 7-2 at home. With 9 on the road, if we only win 3 we've already got 10 wins. I predict 3-1 at Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence, and Depaul. And I'm also willing to bet we win 1 out of @Nova, G'town, Notre Dame, UofL, Pitt. I suppose that's how I came up with 11 wins and I'm sticking with it. $2.50 it is.