Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Notre Dame - Who to Worry About

Ok, here's another nerdy entry for me. I mentioned in a comment that it seems that Luke Harangody always has his big games in losses. So, I did some analysis and here are the answers to my questions.
Does Harangody have bigger games in losses?
Yes, without a doubt, he does. 13% more points is a pretty decent spread over the course of 1.5 years. Additionally, his FG% numbers aren't majorly affected by the increase in production. Impressive stuff for Harangody. This begs the question...
Why do they lose, then?
First off, Harangody turns it over 75% more in losses, costing his team two possessions, that's big. But not nearly as big as Kyle McAlarney's drop-off in losses. 25% fewer points. Shoots 15 points lower on a percentage basis. In real terms, this is missing 3.5 extra shots per game. Add in his higher turnover numbers and McAlarney costs his team FIVE possessions in each loss. Yikes.
What does this all mean?
Harangody's good, and pretty damn consistent. Additionally, the combined output for both players is pretty equal in wins or losses. The difference is McAlarney's poor shooting and turnovers in the losses. My strategy would be to harass McAlarney like crazy. Frustrate him and keep a guy on him at all times. Outside of that, double down on Gody, except with McAlarney's guy and make it difficult to post up. Stop the tokin' mick, beat the Irish.


EMoney said...

Yeah, as I stated earlier, Harangody gets his.....always does, so rather than attempt to shut him down with our less than mediocre bigs, I say let Burke/Hazel/whomever play him straight up and concentrate on McAlarney. Gody's baskets are worth 2, tokin' McAlarney's are usually worth 3, so I say stick Jerel on him and harass the hell out of him to prevent him from making 9 or 10 3's like he did in that game in Maui. If we double down on Harangody, that opens up the kick out to the open 3 pt shooter. That's trouble. They are good but beatable. Like Wisco, they have a ton of white guys that can't keep up with our speed. We need to utilize that by running as much as possible and with pressure defense. How 'bout that Acker guy the other night? 4 assists and 10 steals. Did anybody go and watch Cadougan over the weekend?

EMoney said...

My bad 4 steals and 10 assists....10 steals would have been amazing!

Rubie Q said...

If we leave Burke or Hazel ALONE on The Donkey, he will score 35-40 points. Yes, his baskets are only worth 2, but when he can get them at will, that more than makes up for the loss of High Times' triples.

I'm with D3S. Double with Dom and Wes, leave 'Rel on McAlarney, and pray like hell that Tory Jackson (or whatever the fuck that guy's name is) doesn't get hot.

EMoney said...

Dwight Burke is the next coming of Hakeem Olajuwon! No red-headed irishman is going to go into Dwight's house and push him around. Burke OWNS the paint! Doubling down will not only open up the 3 ball but will likely get our guards into foul trouble. That's all we need is to see Wes sitting on the bench for 15 min's because he's reaching at fatty.