Monday, January 12, 2009

A Look Forward

Thoughts on the remains games:

1-17 @Providence – this one of those games that we should win, but could very easily lose. It’s not a backbreaker if we lose, but a HUGE bonus if we win. Just shy of a gravy game. Can we handle them with Curry in the lineup? Who will control McDermott? This is a tricky game and I’d be delighted with a win, no matter how ugly

1-24 DePaul – easy win. If we lose, I’m jumping in the river. Old Gill is all but done in Lincoln Park

1-26 @ND – I like our chances here. Shrek will get his, we really need to limit McAlarney. James on Jackson and McNeal on McAlarney with everyone doubling down on Harangody except for McNeal. 50/50 game. We should win 1 of 2 against PC & ND

1-31 Georgetown – Can you imagine how rockin’ the BC will be if we enter this game at 7-0 in the conference? How will we stop Monroe? G’town is pretty soft outside of Monroe and we should be able to win this game, close though

2-3 @DePaul - easy win. If we lose, I’m jumping in the river. Old Gill is all but done in Lincoln Park

2-6 @USF – high trickiness potential, it will be close, but the seniors will pull it out

2-10 @Villanova – I’m kind of liking our chances in this one. We won there last year and I’m not sold on Nova at all. If we can keep Cunningham from going off, we’ll be all right

2-14 St. John’s – Saturday night game at the BC against an overmatched opponent, chalk it up as a W

2-17 Seton Hall – I loathe Bobby Gonzalez. I bet this will be a close game, but the Big 3 will pull us through

2-21 @G’town – ugh, and so it begins. Tough, tough game to win. The Verizon Center isn’t exactly an intimidating place to play, but G’town is good. Gravy game if we get it

2-25 UConn – worst…matchup…ever. I’d be flabbergasted if we won this game. Hopefully UConn will lay a famous Calhoun turd and not try very hard

3-1 @UL – Who knows what they will look like at this point in the season? Their win over Nova is a good sign if you are a Cards fan. I say we allow Samuels to post up all game. From what I’ve seen, that guy is a bigger black hole than Harangody

3-4 @Pitt – I haven’t seen them much this year. Regardless, who will guard Young and Blair? Yeesh

3-7 Syracuse – Cuse looks good and they have a very balanced and talented lineup. Onuaku is solid down low. That being said, this is Senior Night and I can’t see the Big 3 losing their last home game

5 Auto Wins – DePaul (2), @USF, St John’s, SH
5 50/50 Games – @PC, @ND, @Nova, G’town, Syracuse
4 Gravy Games – @G’town, UConn, @UL, @Pitt

Win all 5 easy games, go 3-2 in the 50/50 games and steal 1 gravy game. That puts us at 13-5. Pretty do-able fellas!! What do you think?


FPMKE said...

I think we can beat Providence twice no problem and I agree that if we can shut down the pot-head, ND should be a win. That means we only need a win @Nova, G'town, or 'Cuse to get to 3-2 in the 50/50's. Picking up a gravy game might be tough; I haven't been that impressed with G'town outside theri starting line up (sounds like MU).

EMoney said...

1 game at a time. I think the game at Providence will tell us a lot about how good we really are. They're playing well and are a much more talented and experienced team when compared to Rutgers...our only in conference road game thus far. I predict a tough W. James will continue his dominance on the defensive side of the ball and really limit Curry's production......which in my opinion puts him in the running for defensive player of the year in the Big East (too bad there is a Big East bias' towards shot Thabeet). So if McDermott doesn't go off on us we should get out of R.I. with a W and have a solid week to prep for Depaul/Notre Dame. I predict 6-0 going to South Bend with a legitimate shot at winning there. The defense of the Irish is a disgrace to the Big East! I can very well see our speed and press defense shuttin down their slow whities(outside of Harangody) which will allow us to outscore them. We might be witnessing the makings of a special season!

Rubie Q said...

Neither Providence game is a gimmie. Keno Davis is doing nice things up there. The roadie will be very tough to win, and the home game is no given.

Pitt is just unbelievably solid at all five positions. Blair is a beast. Please go pro.

We haven't won any games we weren't supposed to so far. I agree with $ -- we'll know more after Saturday.

Devil's Threesome said...

Um, we only play Providence only folks. I agree that Saturday is a good litmus test. How will the Big 4 hold up the rest of the year? That's a big unknown. The schedule ahead is daunting. I think our ceiling is 13-5, maybe 14-4, but I also think our floor is 10-8, that's why beating Nova and WVU was so huge. You have to win those tweener games at home. Nova's in big trouble b/c they didn't win their tweener at home vs UL. They have to beat either UConn or Pitt now to start February with a winning record in the BE. Yikes!

Rubie Q said...

Right, I knew that. Shouldn't have had that bloody mary this morning ...

EMoney said...

Dejuan Blair is a poor man's Robert Traylor. A beast in college, but won't be anything in the NBA so I don't foresee him leaving after this season....although it appears to be a weak draft class so who knows. He's too short to be a true 4 in the NBA and would get schooled by the SF's quickness and athleticism.

According to Pomeroy (after the WV game) there is a 27% chance that we finish 9-9 and something like a 66% chance that we win 12 games. You can put whatever stock you want to into it. Coming into the season Pomeroy had has going 9-9 or I pretty much told Mr. Pom to eat crap from the get go.

Rubie Q said...

I thought I read that, after the first couple weeks of the season, Pomeroy had us at 7-11 in the Big East. I could be wrong.

Terry said...

Is Saturday's game on TV? I'll be getting back into town on Wednesday, and will be crashing in Kenosha until Sunday....maybe we could all get together for the game?

Let me know-

EMoney said...

Could be.....Cracked Sidewalks discussed the Pomeroy statistics right before Conference play started so that is when a 0.500 finish was predicted and the sky was falling. Now we are 2 weeks into conference play and it appears that some of the upper tier teams aren't as unbeatable as expected and Marquette isn't as bad as projected. And like the silly rankings/polls, these projections fluctuate game to game and are based mainly on the "what have you done for me lately" philosphy.

BTW - thank you Boston College and Wake Forest! I am tired of UNC being hailed the greatest team in 3 decades and Tyler Hansborough the golden boy of college basketball. No disrespect to Pitt, but Wake should be #1 in the nation. Should be interesting to see how the rankings pan out this afternoon. MU might be pushing the top 10 envelope (I predict 12/13).

In other news, looking at bracketology as of 1/5/09 for s&g's....I once again am astonished at that tool Lunardi's love for Wisconsina and disrespect of MU. Wis was a 5 seed while MU was a 6 seed(and ironically enough matched up against #11 seed Kentucky....Ha!). Wisconsin has 1 more loss than MU, has lost to every quality opponent (UConn, Marq, and Texas), and MU beat them head to head, so I do not understand how they are deserving of a 5. None of this really matters at this point, but it bugs me how its the same thing every year. Although after 1 more week of play I suspect things will be changed a bit.

Rubie Q said...

I take everything Lunardi says with a grain of salt, b/c he has to account for potential (and prohibited) Big East matchups in the second round. So if we're not a five (or a four), it's sometimes a function of having too many BEast teams in the 2-4 slots.

That, and he's an ass.

Zone Defense is for Pussies said...

Rubie...please book mark this post for next year's Bronzed Shrimp awards. What have you done with the real D3some? this is way to optimistic for him.

Rubie Q said...

T - the game is on espn2 (yeah, I wrote it in lowercase. That's how I roll). I might be able to convince Mrs. Q to host a viewing gathering @ La Casa Quevedo.

ZD - Give him some time. If we lose on Saturday, he's coming back to the Dark Side with me.

That didn't sound as gay in my head...

EMoney said...

I'd love to disregard whatever Lunardi says, but he is actually very accurate when it comes to comparing his predictions with the actualy brackets produced by the committee. You are correct in regards to having to avoid possible Big East matchups, but since the expansion of the Big East and the increase in tourney teams because of it, it seems that the Big East gets handicapped a bit because they are consistently producing 7 tourney teams with a potential of 9 teams this year. I wonder if this is something that the committee will discuss if they include 8 or 9 teams this year. I know they won't but it seems unreasonable to punish teams because they play in the toughest conference, while those who play in a league where only 4 or 5 teams get in get a kiss on the cheek (ie.Big10). I suppose I'm preaching to the choir here. Although while listening to "The Herd" a week or so back, they had a segment discussing how the Big 10 should no longer be considered a BCS conference. While that would never happen, I find it interesting that the word is out regarding how fraudulent the Big 10 really is. So I'm not as crazy as everyone thinks.

Zone Defense is for Pussies said...

what's going to be most interesting for the NCAA committee is what they do with the 9th team from the big east. say for example its West Virginia and the way the numbers shake out they should be a 8 or 9 seed. They could face a number 1 seed, say Pitt in the second round because there is going to be atleast one all Big East match-up in round 2 (which is against the rules as they read right now).

Zone Defense is for Pussies said...

wait never mind...that doesn't make any sense. hold for rules clarification. I guess there could be a sweet 16 match-up of all Big East teams which is against the rules i think.

Devil's Threesome said...

I was expecting that comment Zone! I was ready to write a "hold on a minute, let's not get too excited post" but the schedule sets up for us to win a minimum of 10 games. Hard to be too negative about that.

I think the Big 11 is improved this year. Look at what Ill & Minnesota are doing and Penn St is much improved. OSU is really struggling right now though. It looks like the league has more depth, just not a ton of high quality teams. From my vantage point, they will get a ton of teams in the tourney, but their only hope for even an Elite 8 team is MSU.

Here are a couple cautionary things about MU:
- still no post presence
- no depth at all
- Fulce & Otule aren't the saviors that they message boards thought they were
- Will the Big 3 wear down?
- Can we win a big road game?

Senior leadership and the ultra-competitiveness of this group makes me confident that we can over come these deficiencies. I'm happy with a 12 win BE season. Anything north of that and I'm ecstatic. Let's enjoy the ride fellas, we only have 6 more home games with the Big 3.

Oh - Reid has volunteered his place for a viewing party on Saturday. That was in the euphoria after the WV win, but I'm holding his ass to that. I'm also inviting us all over at 5 pm for the Pitt-UL game. This crew needs to be together to scout these two teams.

Finally - we are now #14 in the coaches' poll.

EMoney length comment.

FPMKE said...

Hey, my fucking comment didn't post before. I apologized for the Providence flub... my bad.

Sheets' Va Jay Jay said...

Same conference teams can meet in the Sweet sixteen, just not in the first two rounds. That is my understanding of the rule.

Zone Defense is for Pussies said...

Per wikipedia:

Teams are spread out according to conference. The first three teams selected from each conference must be placed in different regions. When a conference has more than three teams in the tournament, the committee tries to seed the teams so that they cannot meet until the regional final. Before 2006, this was an absolute rule. However, in the summer of 2005, the NCAA changed its rules to allow intraconference matchups as early as the second round of the tournament, assuming all measures to keep the teams apart until the regional finals have been exhausted. The NCAA was clearly preparing for the chance that a conference would place more than eight teams in the tournament, which became a realistic possibility when the Big East, already a power conference, expanded to 16 members, with several of the new members having traditionally strong programs.

The committee may move a team up or down one seed from its seed line in the S-curve in order to preserve other principles. While this may be seen as unfair in some instances, the seeding process is an inexact science anyway and a slight move in seeding is unlikely to affect the chances of any team.

Regional finals means Elite 8. should be a fun selection sunday this year...I aboslutely love Selection Sunda!

Reid You Animal! said...

As for Saturday, D3 notified me that I was hosting s shindig for the viewing of the game. I have since cleared it with the Mrs. so that's good to go if anyone is so inclined. If we'd prefer to do it at the Q household that's cool with me too, but I have already gone through the spousal clearance process so that saves us a step. An email will be forthcoming.

Sheets' Va Jay Jay said...

Are you sure the information is correct, Zone? I heard that some stuff on the internets, and even wikipedia, could be infactual. I don't believe this, but that's what I heard.

I'm in for Saturday. After doing jack this past weekend, it is needed. Maybe we could even play cards after... that could get too late though after a game.

Zone Defense is for Pussies said...

I'm glad Reid made it through the spousal clearance process...that can really be a bitch sometimes (no pun intended...wait...yeah I'm going to stick with no pun intended). count me in for Saturday as well...should be fun. VaJayJay, I'm fairly certain of this but I can find non Wike evidence if you'd like.

Rubie Q said...

Wow. Way to take a stand there, MikeHunt!

"I would like to watch the Marquette-Providence game. Afterwards, we might have a game of cards. This, too, should prove enjoyable. Sadly, the day may grow short 'fore we can have a game of cards. This, it appears, would be regrettable."

I don't know why I wrote that like Dickens. Fuck me, I'm tired.

Sheets' Va Jay Jay said...

I'm not sure who you are making fun of there, but if it's me, it's deserved. My post doesn't make sense.

Playing cards could be fun after the Marquette game. It could be a late start though and that could prove to be a poor choice. Plus if there are girls there we can't. They can't play cards. I read that on wikipedia.

Rubie Q said...

Yeah, I was making fun of you, but ZD got in there with a post before I could get mine out.

You're right about girls not being able to play cards, though. I saw that on an episode of "Saved by the Bell: The College Years." Man, that Bob Golic is fantastic.