Wednesday, September 23, 2009

D3's Top 25 Picks of the Week for Gambling Degenerates Too Lazy to Do Their Own Research

Last Week’s Results: 6-14
Reaction: Well, that was grisly, good thing I’m not a gambling man. The title of this post should be reconsidered if I have another week like that. So, here it goes for week 2 of D3’s picks.

Thursday
5 Ole Miss (-3.5) @ South Carolina
Ole Miss hasn’t played anyone yet – beating up on Memphis & Southeastern Louisiana. Which South Carolina team with show up? The one that scored 7 points against NC State or the one that exploded for 37 at Georgia. This has trap game written all over it for Ole Miss, but I’m going to stick with the Rebels. Their collapse will happen, trust me, but not this week.

Saturday
1 Florida (-21.5) @ Kentucky
Florida has been hit by the flu and Urban Meyer continues to engage Lane Kiffin in their pillow fight of words. Florida is thin at receiver and doesn’t have a go-to running back. The UF defense will have to bring it in a big way to cover, but I wasn’t impressed with their inability to stop UT’s run game last week, particularly since they knew the Catfish wasn’t going to throw downfield.

UTEP @ 2 Texas (-36)
36 is a ton of points for a team that sputtered last week against a suspect Texas Tech defense.

Arkansas @ 3 Alabama (-17.5)
17 is a ton of points for this game. Never underestimate Nick Saban’s ability to clam up offensively in a close game. Bama will win, but Ryan Mallet will do enough to keep this close.

Iowa @ 5 Penn St (-9.5)
A night game in Happy Valley, white out crowd and the opponent has no viable running game? Yikes. Iowa has done a good job of masking their poor offense the last two weeks, but Penn St is an entirely new level compared to Iowa St & Arizona.

6 California (-5.5) @ Oregon
I don’t believe in Oregon at all. Sure, they’ve beaten Utah and Purdue the last two weeks, but Jeremiah Masoli went 4-16 last week. Jahvid Best continues his guerilla Heisman campaign. Watch this game instead of the Illinois-Ohio St rock fight on at the same time.

7 LSU (-13) @ Mississippi St
Outside of Ole Miss, LSU may be the most overrated team in the country. Mississippi St averaged 4.5 yards/pass last week at Vanderbilt. LSU will cover, even if it’s 14-0.

8 Boise St (-17) @ Bowling Green
Lots of waffling on this one. Bowling Green’s offense is nothing special (10 points at Marshall), but Boise lost one of the running backs for the season and are making the cross-country trip.

9 Miami (FL) (-2.5) @ 11 Virginia Tech
My lead pipe cinch of the week. Miami’s D isn’t vintage, but VT’s offense is beyond putrid. Miami by 2 scores. I’m not quite drinking the Cane Kool-Aid, this is more of an anti-VT pick. Fuckers.

Washington St @ 12 USC (-46.5)
46.5 points? Holy motherfuck! USC will be starting a gimpy freshman or a sophomore who threw for 110 yards last week. That’s a ton of confidence in the Trojans that I don’t have. USC doesn’t care enough to annihilate WSU by 47 points.

Illinois @ 13 Ohio St (-14)
Illinois got the win the C-bus two years ago. Ohio St’s D is too good, but one never knows what the Zookster has up his sleeve.

Fresno St @ 14 Cincinnati (-16.5)
I think Cincinnati is really good, but they’ll be a bit high on themselves with all the media stroking after beating Oregon St last week. People are talking about an undefeated season. Pat Hill’s teams live for this shit. Fresno won’t win, but they’ll keep it close enough.

15 TCU @ Clemson (-2.5)
Clemson struggled to put away Boston College last week. Lest you didn’t hear, BC averaged under 1 yard a play. Therefore, I have to go with TCU. This is their biggest game of the year, so they’ll bring it to Death Valley.

Texas Tech @ 17 Houston (-1)
My favorite game of the day. Tech looked pretty decent against Texas last week. When in doubt, go with the more experienced QB. Case Keenum, for UH, is better and older.

South Florida @ 18 Florida St (-14.5)
My lead pipe cinch #2 on the week. I may have taken FSU at -14.5 before USF’s Matt Grothe went out for the year. For those thinking that FSU will let down, USF has talked some trash about this game over the past couple of years.

Colorado St @ 19 BYU (-16.5)
CSU is still, somehow, undefeated. That will end on Saturday. I’m interested to see if BYU can bounce back from the massive egg laying against Florida St.

Southern Miss @ 20 Kansas (-13.5)
The Kansas football team is going all Jets vs. Sharks on the Kansas basketball team. They even broke Tyshawn “Judas” Taylor’s thumb. That’s not a good distraction to have when you have a good, and historically pesky, USM team coming to town. KU wins, but close.

Arizona St @ 21 Georgia (-12)
Wow, this was an ABC primetime game last year and now it’s on ESPNU. Georgia’s gauntlet continues and they’ll cover with their newfound offense.

22 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-2.5)
I’m fucking done with GT after last week’s horrific performance against Miami. I was skeptical of them last year and I am newly skeptical this year. UNC saw all their option shit last year. Butch Davis scheme em up and get in the win in Atlanta.

Indiana @ 23 Michigan (-21)
Can someone fucking tell me why this game is on ESPN2 as national coverage? Two words for this game: Not Competitive.

24 Washington @ Stanford (-7)
Wow, UW beats USC and then is a 7 point dog on the road to Stanford? I was thinking of picking a Stanford upset special, but I’ll stick with the Huskies. Jake Locker is a stud.

UL-Lafayette @ 25 Nebraska (27.5)
As covered in the Red Recap, Huskers 38-13, so I have to stick with UL-L.

8 comments:

Master Reid said...

What's the over/under for that UH - Texas Tech game? My guess is it's a higher number than most Big Ten basketball games. I'm taking the over regardless. Air Raid baby! Hit the sirens D3.

EMoney said...

I feel a need to contribute/partake in one of these college football posts because of your persistent "just for emoney" label at the end of each of these. That being said, I am going to go through each one of these games and pick against the spread to see how I stand up against the college football aficionado, D3. So here ya go...

1. I'll take the the home dogs...or is it home cocks? I'll take South Carolina (+3.5)
2. Obviously Fl is good, but UK has been known to upset at home, so I'll take UK (+21.5)
3. I luv the gun slinger cheerleader uni's so I'll take the Longhorns(-36) at home.
4. Tough call, Roll tide (-17.5)
5. I don't know sh*t about college football, but I really like this line for some reason. Penn St. (-9.5) in Happy Valley.
6. Can't stand the crazy libs at Berkeley so I'm going to go with Oregon(+5.5) for spite.

***Just noticed I've gone with all of the home teams....probably not a good sign.

7. On that note, I'm going with LSU (-13).
8. Continuing the latest trend I like Boise St. (-17) at Bowling Green. "I didn't know they still had a team".
9. Make sure the metal detectors are turned on for this one. I'll take Va Tech (+2.5) at home.
10. Whew...46.5pt fav for USC on the road in the Pac10. If WaSU's style of play is anything resemblant of their basketball team I can't imagine there will be enough time to cover 46.5 pts. And I like D3s analysis too. WSU +46.5
I need to take a break, be back with the rest of my predictions soon.

Rubie Q said...

6-14 last week? This is Bill Simmons-esque gambling advice.

Devil's Threesome said...

yes, I'm really, really embarrassed about my record. Those guys in Vegas are good. Here's my excuse - it's really tough to pick all the Top 25 games b/c most of the lines are perfect.

I may highlight 5 games that I'm dead solid on since those would be a better indicator.

EMoney said...

Ok, where was I?

11. I like the Illini(+14) to cover in the horseshoe. These games have typically been close the past few years.
12. Cincy (-16.5) at home. The fan base is amped about this team and Fresno St. has had a string of tough games while traveling all over the country at the same time.
13. TCU at Clemson (-2.5)???? No idea....does LT play for them? When in doubt go with the home slight favorite, Clemson.
14. I'll go with Phi Slamma Jamma (-1)
15. Florida St (-14) at home.....I didn't realize how long this was really going to take.....but it's too late to turn back now. My analyses will shorten.
16.BYU (-16.5)
17. The latest out of KU has to be distracting. How embarassing! I'd also like to point out that I'm happy that once MU-committed Tyshawn Taylor took his gangsta a** to Kansas. Did everyone see his Facebook quotes? What a tool.
Anyways, I agree with you D3 Southern Miss(+13.5) will cover. Will Kansas suffer any ramifications from the thugerry?
18. Georgia(-12).
19. I like Georgia Tech (-2.5) at home.
20. Michigan (-21). I know it's Indiana, BUT, it's Indiana football.
21. Washington (+7) at Stanford??? Washington has to be confident after taking down USC last week. I think they stay hot and cover.
22. Don't see a spread for the Nebraska game. Tough call if its a pick 'em. Leaning towards UL-L. Just giving u sh*t D3. I'll go against your prediction and take Neb.

What do you say we do a weekly "QB vs D3" showdown on his picks? We'll see how much this guy really knows. I'll take the inaugural week....Gentleman's bet of $1?

Softball's Tony Gwynn said...

2 things:

-what's the line on the Husker game?
-is USC seriously favored by 47.5 points in a conference game? I understand that its Wash. St. but seriously that's a lot of points.

Devil's Threesome said...

Ah, sorry for not having the Husker line up there. I'm usually pretty wiped by the time I get to #25.

E - I'd love to do a pick off against you.

EMoney said...

Scoreboard

EMoney: 1-0

D3: 0-1