Thursday, September 24, 2009

I Can't Believe This.

It's been almost three months since we've checked in with Todd Welter, everybody's favorite pint-sized blur of incoherent analogies, non-existent punctuation, and impossibly broad generalizations.

Today, in a post titled "Guess Rickie Weeks Would Not Make Much of a Difference," Toddles is talkin' stats ... sort of. I think. Maybe? I don't know, you tell me:

That is according to our friends at AccuScore.com. I asked them how the Brewers' season would have turned out had Rickie Weeks been healthy all season and hitting leadoff at an All-Star pace.

For those who don't remember / have blocked out / are still too emotionally traumatized to remember, here are Rickie's numbers before his wrist went boom: .272/.340/.517, for a healthy .857 OPS, with 9 homers and 24 driven in. He'd also stolen two bases and made 6 errors in 37 games.

Those are nice numbers, no doubt. (They're also reassuring numbers to everyone who's waited four years to see if Rickie could begin to put it all together.) They're not Pujols-ian -- hell, they're not even Fielder-ian or Braun-ian -- but they're solid.

They do have the technology to have a fairly accurate portrayal of how things will turn out so their projections are fairly accurate.

God, I've missed Todd. Haven't you missed Todd? Just bask in the wonder of that sentence for a second, please? The website has the technology to make fairly accurate predictions, so the predictions made by the 'site are fairly accurate. Delicious; I'd like to wrap that sentence up in bacon and eat it, and then wash it down with a tall glass of Nonsense.

Well, their answer was Weeks' presence would have only provided two more wins this season. That is it just two more wins.

Well, yeah, man. That sounds about right. When Weeks went down, his WAR (according to FanGraphs) was at 1.6. Add in the facts that Counsell, by and large, was stellar in the immediate aftermath of Weeks' injury, and that Felipe Lopez has gone .321/.404/.455 as a Brewer, and ... well, that two extra wins almost looks generous. Weeks was off to a good start. His replacements have been just as good. Scene.

I'm sorry. Hold on a second, would you? Someone's at the door. Let me get that.

Oh, hey! Look at that. It's BAT-SHIT CRAZY! Bat-Shit Crazy is here, everybody, and he's got something to add:

I was expecting maybe eight more wins with the way he was hitting the cover off the ball before he went down.

Now, this shouldn't be all that surprising, given that Toddles told you earlier in the year that you could expect the Brewers to rip off multiple 10-game winning streaks this season, and to drop 10 games in a row several times, too.

But ... oof. Eight more wins? E-I-G-H-T ? I mean: wow, man.

Just to make sure I wasn't making a mountain out of a pile of shit, I consulted with someone who knows a hell of a lot more about this stuff than I do, KL Snow from BrewCrewBall. Quoth the Snowman:

An eight win player is exceptionally rare...to the best of my knowledge, there are only a handful of Brewers who have ever picked up an eight WAR season. Robin Yount did it one time (11.5 in 1982), but aside from that he was never good for more than 6.7.

... and ...

In their careers, Yount, Molitor and Cecil Cooper combined had one 8 war season.

... and (yes, there's another "and" -- he's nothing if not thorough, that KL), KL came up with a list of Brewer players who've never had an 8 WAR season:

Ben Oglivie
Jeff Cirillo
Ted Simmons
Prince Fielder
Ryan Braun
Gorman Thomas
Don Money
George Scott
Richie Sexson

So, to sum up: it's not just me.

3 comments:

FPMKE said...

What's that Llama? Rickie Weeks? We can rebuild him? The Internets has the tehnologies?

Master Reid said...

Llama hasn't the cognitive capacity to create anything but nonsense, so most of the things he says turn out to be nonsense.

Gregor said...

I keep re-reading the sentence "They do have the technology..." and I'm just in awe.