Friday, October 2, 2009

D3's Top 25 Picks of the Week for Gambling Degenerates Too Lazy to Do Their Own Research

Friday
Utah St @ 20 BYU (-27) Despite the lovefest after the OU game, BYU isn't that great. USU kept it close(ish) against Utah and will do the same here.

Saturday
3 Alabama (-17) @ Kentucky
I’ve learned my lesson – stop picking against Alabama. They are really good. The main reason is Bama actually has a QB this year in Greg McElroy. UK was flattened by Florida last week, but managed to flatten Tim-Tebow-our-lord-and-savior in the meantime. Score one for the atheists. Will Bama be looking ahead to crushing Ole Miss next week? Highly doubtful or Nick Saban will have all of their balls in a jar under the sink.

4 LSU @ 18 Georgia (-2.5)
This is LSU’s profile: Gave up 500 yards to a team that was winless in 2008, needed a defensive and special teams touchdown to beat a 1-win SEC team in 2008, only scored 31 points at home against UL-Lafayette, and let Vanderbilt hang around well into the second half. Are they bored or are they good? UGA is in the middle of a death march. Oklahoma St-South Carolina-Arkansas-Arizona St. Can the Ginger Ninja muster up enough offense to pull off the win in Athens? I’ll go with Georgia b/c they are winning despite turning the ball over at an alarming rate.

UC Davis @ 5 Boise St
Another D-1AA body bag game. No line, no challenge for BSU. Boise has played all their tough games. Any loss from here on out would be a HUGE upset. Enjoy the hyperventilating from the talking heads on whether BSU deserves to play in the BCS title game.

6 Virginia Tech (-16.5) @ Duke
Ugh, another perfect line. VT is what we thought they were, a no offense, defensive-minded team. They will ripe for an upset on any given weekend, but not this weekend. Duke is not good, losing to D-1AA Richmond. I’ll take VT in this one, by some mind numbing score like 22-5.

7 USC (-5.5) @ 24 California
Everyone is leaving USC for dead, but check out these stats. They are struggling in the most correctable area, turnovers. California has been dangerous at home lately, but Kevin Reilly is still their QB, nullifying USC disadvantage with Matt Barkley’s inexperience. USC’s defense has been owning everyone at the line of scrimmage. When in doubt, go with the best defense.

8 Oklahoma (-6.5) @ 17 Miami
No Sam Bradford for OU, but Miami is missing their top two safeties...hmm. Miami doesn’t have a decided homefield advantage, but OU’s last two trips to Joe Robbie Stadium (fuck you, Jimmy Buffett and your crap-ass beer) were horrorshow performances. Oklahoma’s defense in for real and probably picked up some tips from VT’s thrashing of Miami last week. Big XII homer pick alert!
9 Ohio St (-16.5) @ Indiana
I’m warming up to Ohio St, which means they won’t cover this week. This will be a great comparison game with what Indiana did last week at Michigan. I’m betting Michigan’s defense is as bad advertised and…wait for it…it’s Indiana, it’s Indiana. Ohio St will do everything offensively to not cover in this game, but will still get it done. 19-2.
10 Cincinnati (-28) @ Miami (OH)
Miami is atrocious – it took them 10 quarters to score this year. This is not known nationally, but this is a rivalry game (thanks NCAA Football 2009), so UC should be up for it. The undefeated watch continues for the Bearcats.

Southern Methodist @ 11 TCU (-27.5)
Despite what fake Howard Schnellenberger thinks, SMU is bottom of the barrel. TCU’s offense has been ordinary (as always) and 27.5 is a ton of points, but I think they’ll cover. Enjoying all this chalk, gentlemen?
12 Houston (-16) @ UTEP Sound the air raid siren, Houston is bound for a letdown after the big win against Texas Tech. Doesn’t matter, UTEP is all shades of awful, they were outgained by over 600 yards by Texas last week.
Arkansas St @ 13 Iowa (-20.5) This game is on ESPN2. Really, WWL? You bypassed the Michigan-Michigan St game for this? Lucky for the game below or this would be the swine flu game of the week. Let’s go with Arkansas St to get some yards as Iowa looks forward to the remainder of Big 11 season.
15 Penn St (-6.5) @ Illinois
Most…unwatchable…game…of…the…week. First downs will be as rare as XX chromosomes in Platteville. Looking back, I have no clue why PSU was ranked in the Top 5. They’ve scored one touchdown in the second half this year. If you like Big 11 football (thumbtacks in your eye, Badger basketball and Bud Light also apply) this is the game for you. Oh, actual "analysis" is requested? Well, U of I sucks worse, pick State Penn, but don’t fucking watch.
Washington St @ 16 Oregon (-32)
Once again, too many points. Oregon hasn’t shown any consistency yet, so I’ll go with Washington St. I would never put money on this one – UO is too schizophrenic.
21 Mississippi (-9.5) @ Vanderbilt
Ole Miss will be angry after last week’s loss and last year’s inexplicable home loss to Vandy. I’ll go with the Rebels here, but they’ll barely cover.
22 Michigan @ Michigan St (Pick ‘em)
Free money, folks. MSU always gets up for this game and Tate Forcier is making his first road start with a shaky defense, but Sparty's defense made Scott Tolzien into the Big 11 offensive player of the week (I know, that's like winning the Miss North Dakota pageant).

25 Georgia Tech (-4.5) @ Mississippi St
Probably the toughest pick of the week. MSU was a half yard away from beating LSU on Saturday and the Tigers needed a punt return and INT return to win. GT got back on track with a win at home against UNC, rolling up over 300 yards rushing. Let’s go with the Rambling Wreck here.

4 comments:

EMoney said...

Volunteers? Or do I have to embarass D3 again?

Rubie Q said...

Take it away, degenerate.

Sheets' Va Jay Jay said...

I love the shot at Platteville. It's like you've lived in Wisconsin your whole life.

Devil's Threesome said...

By my measurements, I went a respectable 8-8 this past week.