Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Its Game Day Bitches...



Well its 8:10 am and I'm already fired up for tonight's HUGE game at the BC. Apparently its Al's night and they are re-doing the intro video for the occasion. Louisville scares the hell out of me but I think Buzz and the boys are riding a nice little wave right now so I'll say we pull this one out 75-71, perhaps in overtime again. Keys to the game:

-Shooting Percentage-The Ville likes to jack up shots and MU will probably have to take a lot of jumpers and 3 pointers against the stupid 2-3 zone so whichever team is shooting the ball better will have a better chance to win (how do you like that for in depth analysis)
-Turnovers-MU has been pretty good in this department, but not as good as of late. We need to take care of the ball against the Louisville pressure and not give away possessions
-Second Chance Points-We might get killed on the boards tonight but we can't give them second chance points when they have the ball.
-Foul Trouble-We did a real nice job against Monroe earlier this year but Zar, Jimmy, Fulce, and maybe even E-Will need to try and keep Samuels in check but avoid picking up stupid fouls.
-Free Throws-We need to get to the line a lot tonight because if we do it means we are attacking the zone, getting good dribble penetration, and forcing them to foul us. Plus we are a pretty decent foul shooting team.

17 comments:

Rubie Q said...

Might I add:

OFFICIATING: word is that Higgins and Driscoll are calling the game tonight. If they're whistling U of L for the constant hand- and hip-checking that Pitino teams are famous for, that'll help a lot.

Softball's Tony Gwynn said...

yeah but the problem is we'll get our fair share of hand/hip fouls too, like the lazar foul 35 feet from the hoop. those things usually have a funny way of evening out at the end of the night.

current line on game is MU -3.5

EMoney said...

The most important key to the game is BALL CONTROL! Louisville thrives on turning over their opponents.....leads to easy baskets, quick runs of points, and more importantly momentum on the road....which keeps the crowd out of the game. Even the Big3 had trouble with Louisville during their 4 years at MU due to this. I suspect our 5 starters will see a LARGE majority of the playing time in tonights game (pending foul trouble of course). I foresee Mo, Cubillan, Jimmy, and Lazar (naturally) playing the most because of their ball control capabilities against this defense. DJO should get the bulk of the remaining minutes of course, but I am concerned about his tendency to turn the ball over. We cannot give away possessions tonight! I could easily see a lineup of Acker, Cubillan, Fulce, Jimmy, and Lazar on the floor a lot tonight.

Unfortunately, I think that our unbelievable run comes to an end tonight. We always have trouble with UoL regardless of where it's played, and our current lineup isn't nearly as potent as it has been in years past. Further, our shooting % has dropped consistently over the past few weeks (unusual that we have been winning in spite of this). We need to turn that around if we want to win tonight. I don't foresee us winning while shooting 35% from the field.

Mr. Sparkle said...

I'm with E$ on this one. We haven't been dominant enough lately and UofL has always been trouble for MU.

BTW, love the new video.

Devil's Threesome said...

I think UL gets the win. A couple of things to watch.

1) How do we defend the offensive rebound? Do our guards crash the boards to help?

2) Do we double down on Samuels and risk the kick-outs for 3?

3) Can we get dribble penetration to create kick out opportunities?

4) How does UL defend the drive and kick? Will they be like Pitt and let us go, defend the kickout and force our guards to finish near the hole?

5) Pace will be critical - the slower the better for MU

6) UL has multiple defensive shortcomings. They are near the bottom in giving up offensive boards, free throws and 3 point %. The first two will be neutralized b/c MU lacks bigs and finishing guards. As usual, #3 will be our key to success.

EMoney said...

Fortunately for MU, UoL isn't overly big. Further, I would say that our previous 3 road opponents, while less talented overall than Louisville, are much better at crashing the boards than UoL. Samuels, while a big body, is only 6'8".....and he's not exactly Dejuan Blair on the boards. He is good, but I'm not overly scared of him, and think that Fulce/Zar/Jimmy can handle him enough. That being said, I wouldn't double down on him unless he is killing us inside right out the gate. I am more fearful of a Louisville team hitting 8+ 3's than a Louisville team where Samardo gets 20pts inside. They are more dangerous and confident when their guards are knocking down the 3 (Swopshire included).

Rubie Q said...

One other thing:

FATIGUE. As per usual, U of L goes deep into its bench; Slick Rick is giving 11 guys 10+ minutes of run per game.

We might only go six deep tonight, if Buycks is out again. Could be a big problem against U of L's full-court press, especially since we only had one day to recover from SHU.

Devil's Threesome said...

They are deeper, but they played a roadie on Sunday at UConn, which helps to even that out a bit.

UL is #12 in the nation in Offensive Rebounding %. For comparison sake, PC is #8 and UConn is #24 and both had 7 more offensive boards than we did. UL did get murdered on the boards on Sunday at UConn. Hopefully that spills over.

EMoney said...

Yeah I agree Rub, fatigue could very well be a factor. IMO, DJO appears to have hit somewhat of a wall here in his first season in the Big East....maybe why he isn't hitting his jumper as consistently, isn't attacking the lane as much, and losing the ball more frequently when he does attack. Just a thought.

If overall fatigue is an issue, it definitely will hurt us more as u stated. Although, I suspect our game plan will be to slow down the game anyways, so that should help us. If fatigue does happen to affect UoL's starters, they might very well begin to settle for chucking up jumers.....which would play right into our hands.

Master Reid said...

One thing we haven't mentioned, that scares me is our ability to contain their dribble penetration. We let Theodore and Harvey go where ever they wanted in the 2nd half Sunday and it damn near cost us. If their guards get free reign like that they'll be scoring, finding shooters, feeding Samuel inside, and it could spell disaster for the home team.

As for predictions, I've been saying all year that I just assume every single game is going to go down to the last possession. So regardless if we're up big or down big early, I assume I'll be chewing on a towel like Jerry Tarkanian come the last minute of the game. My preference is that this year it's our turn to kick UofL in the nuts. However, I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Devil's Threesome said...

Really good read on the Scout board regarding strategies for the game.

http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=415&f=2850&t=5671225

Mr. Rumsfield's Brownies said...

anybody going to the usual place for drinks beforehand? if so, what time?

Devil's Threesome said...

I'll be there by 7. I CAN'T WAIT!!!

Rubie Q said...

Mrs. Q are I are having dinner, then we'll be the The Usual Place.

EMoney said...

Pre-Game beverages at Kensington #201, 7:00pm!

Password: "Ummm, is that her underwear?"

BE THERE!!!!

Rubie Q said...

I'll send Taiwan, $.

Rubie Q said...

It didn't help that they were both blotto.